Keywords
How to Cite
Abstract
Statistical analysis of the number of destructive earthquakes versus global temperature and greenhouse gases revealed very significant correlations. The motion of the North Pole, deduced from the geomagnetic polar shift data, is highly correlated with major earthquakes. This is an indication that the frequent occurrence of major earthquakes had increased earth’s obliquity and induced global warming and possibly emission of greenhouse gases. It was shown by a simple model developed here that seismic-induced oceanic force could enhance the obliquity leading to increased solar radiative flux on earth. The increase of the absorbed solar radiation due to polar tilt was also confirmed by SOLRAD model which computed a net gain of solar radiative forcing due to enhanced obliquity. SOLRAD also revealed a poleward gain of solar radiative flux which could have facilitated the observed polar amplification of global warming. Multiple regression analysis also showed that polar shift and solar irradiance played a major role in the temperature rise and CO2 increase in recent years. The analysis showed that obliquity change due to North Pole shift and total solar irradiance accounted for 63.5% and 36.4% respectively, while CO2 changes accounted for 0.1% of the observed global warming. Preliminary simulations conducted with EdGCM climate model also showed that enhanced obliquity increases the absorbed solar radiative flux, surface air and ocean temperatures, and decreases ocean ice cover. This study confirmed in several ways that earthquake-perturbed obliquity change, and not greenhouse effect, is the major mechanism governing the present global warming and climate change problem.
References
Croll J. On the change in the obliquity of the ecliptic: It’s influence on the climate of the polar regions and level of the sea. Trans Geol Soc 1867; Glasgow.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report (FAR) of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, et al., Eds, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 2007.
Jaworowski Z. CO2 scandal. 2007; Spring/Summer 21st Century Science and Technology.
Bond-Lamberty B, Thomson A. Temperature-associated increases in the global soil respiration record, Nature 2010. doi:10.1038/nature08930. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature08930
Meehl GA, Washington WM, Ammann CP, Arblaster JM, Wigley TML, Tehaldi C. Combinations of Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings in Twentieth-Century Climate. J Climate 2004; 17: 3721-7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520- 0442(2004)0172.0.CO;2
Girkin AN. A computational study on the evolution of the dynamics of the obliquity of the earth. Master of Science Thesis, 2005; Miami University.
Laskar J, Joutel F, Robutel P. Stabilization of the Earth’s obliquity by the Moon. Nature 1993; 361: 615-7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/361615a0
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/releases/2000/cha-ndlerwobble.html. A Mystery of Earth's Wobble Solved: It's the Ocean.
Rivera PC. Modeling the Asian tsunami evolution and propagation with a new generation mechanism and a nonlinear dispersive wave model. Sci Tsunami Haz 2006; 25: 18- 33.
http://edgcm.columbia.edu. The educational Global Climate Model (EdGCM Ver 3.2). Columbia University. New York.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_21st_century_earthquake s#cite_note-34
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_20th_century_earthquake s#cite_note-34
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/data/poles/NP.xy
Chao BF, Iz HB. Does polar motion influence the occurrence of earthquakes. EOS, Trans Amer Geophys Union 1992; 73: 79.
Rivera PC. Modeling the mysterious tsunami swirls off the northeast coast of Japan during the great Tohoku earthquake of March 2011. Submitted to Sci. Tsunami Hazard 2011.
Song YT. Detecting tsunami genesis and scales directly from coastal GPS stations. Geophys Res Lett 2007; 34: L19602. doi:10.1029/2007GL031681. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031681
Song Y, Fu L, Zlotnicki V, Ji C, Hjorleifsdottir V, Shum C, Yi Y. Horizontal motions of faulting dictate the 26 December 2004 Tsunami Genesis. American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting Dec. 2006, abstract #U53C-02
Humlum O, Solheim JE, Stordahl K. Identifying natural contributions to late Holocene climate change. Global and Planetary Change 2011; 79: 145-56.
Kosek W, McCarthy DD, Luzum BJ. Variations of annual oscillation parameters, El Niño and their influence on polar motion prediction errors. Accepted in Studia Geophysica et Geodetica Warsaw, Poland, 2001.
Pelletier G. SOLRAD Version 1.2. A solar position and radiation calculator for Microsoft Excel/VBA. Washington State Department of Ecology, Olympia, WA. Bird RE, Hulstrom RL (1991) A Simplified Clear Sky model for Direct and Diffuse Insolation on Horizontal Surfaces. SERI Technical Report SERI/TR-642-761, Feb 1991. Solar Energy Research Institute, Golden, CO, 1995.
Bras RL. Hydrology. Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA, 1990.
Ryan PJ, Stolzenbach KD. Engineering aspects of heat disposal from power generation, (D.R.F. Harleman, ed.). R.M. Parson Laboratory for Water Resources and Hydrodynamics, Department of Civil Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, 1972.
Steinhilber F, Beer J, Fröhlich C. Total solar irradiance during the Holocene. Geophys Res Lett 2009; 36: L19704 doi:10.1029/2009GL040142. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040142
Fang JY, Zhu JL, Wang SP, Yue C, Shen HH. Global warming, human-induced carbon emissions, and their uncertainties. Sci Chin Earth Sci 2011; 54: 1458-68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11430-011-4292-0
Hurrell J, Meehl GA, Bader D, Delworth TL, Kirtman B, Wielicki B. A Unified Modeling Approach to Climate System Prediction. BAMS 2009; 90: 1819-32. doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2752.1. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2752.1
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/
Drysdale RN, Hellstrom JC, Zanchetta G, Fallick AE, Sánchez Goñi MF, Couchoud I, McDonald J, Maas R, Lohmann G and Isola I. Evidence for obliquity forcing of glacial termination II. Published Online Aug. 13, 2009. Science 18 Sept. 2009; 325: 1527-31. DOI: 10.1126/science.1170371. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1170371
Trenberth KE. Fasullo JT. Global warming due to increasing absorbed solar radiation. Geophys Res Lett 2009; 36: L07706. doi:10.1029/2009GL037527. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037527
Fujita M, Chao BF, Sanchez BV, Johnson TJ. Oceanic torques on solid Earth and their effects on Earth rotation. J Geophys Res 2002; Vol. 107: 2154, 13 pp. doi:10.1029/2001JB000339
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.