Keywords
minimum
satellite
solar
temperature
How to Cite
Abstract
The current controversy over the cause of increasing global temperatures since the middle of the 20th century comes from the IPCC First Assessment Report issued in 1990. The report states rising carbon dioxide (CO2) warms the air, thereby holding more of the significant warming gas, water vapor. This additional water vapor feeds back to amplify the warming by CO2. The IPCC has continually promoted this concept in its reports since 1990. Up-to-date science proves the IPCC concept is faulty. Scientists discovered that when the Sun's energy output changes, it impacts the Earth's temperature, and it does this cyclically. Current, reliable evidence shows the Earth has just come through a warm period. It is now in the early stages of cooling that might be similar to the Dalton Minimum and last for three or four decades. Average temperatures can drop by up to 1.5oC and increase the rate of crop failures that have already started. It won't be easy to maintain the benefits of the recent warm phase of the Sun during the upcoming solar minimum.
References
Sidiropoulos M. A Brief Perspective on Climate Change Skepticism, preprint, ResearchGate, Project Climate Science, Oct. 2021, Available at: (PDF) A Brief Perspective on Climate Change Skepticism (researchgate.net)
Climate Change, The IPCC Scientific Assessment, edited by Houghton HT, Jenkins GJ, Ephraums JJ. Cambridge University Press, 1990. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf
Stephens GL, Li J, Wild M, et al. An update on Earth’s energy balance in light of the latest global observations. Nature Geoscience 2012; 5: 691-696. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1580
Charbonneau P. Dynamo models of the solar cycle. Living Rev Sol Phys 2020; 17: 1-93. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41116-020-00025-6
The Keeling Curve is a daily record of global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration maintained by Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego. Available at: https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/
Lightfoot HD, Mamer OA. Calculation of atmospheric radiative forcing (warming effect) of carbon dioxide at any concentration. Energy & Environment 2014; 25(8). https://doi.org/10.1260/0958-305X.25.8.1439
van Wijngaarden WA, Happer W. Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases, June 8, 2020, arXiv:2006.03098v1 [physics.ao-ph]. Available at: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03098.pdf. See caption to Figure 4, page 45.
Lightfoot HD. The IPCC Made Three Fatal Errors in Assumptions about CO2, Set Publisher. Journal of Basic & Applied Sciences 2020; 16: 94-104. Available at: http://www.thelightfootinstitute.ca/imglib/IPCC-3-errors-CO2.pdf. Compare Figures 1 and 8.
Lightfoot HD, Mamer OA. Back radiation versus CO2 as the cause of climate change, Energy & Environment, July 28, 2017, Sage publications the UK. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958305X17722790
Earth System Science Center. The University of Alabama in Huntsville, Global Temperature Report. Available at: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/
Global warming, latest monthly global temperatures. Available at: https://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/
Svensmark H. Force Majeure, The Sun’s Role in Climate Change, The Global Warming Policy Foundation GWPF Report 33. ISBN 978-0-9931190-9-5, 2019. Available at: https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2019/03/SvensmarkSolar2019-1.pdf
IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pirani A, Connors SL, Péan C, Berger S, Caud N, Chen Y, Goldfarb L, Gomis MI, Huang M, Leitzell K, Lonnoy E, Matthews JBR, Maycock TK, Waterfield T, Yelekçi O, Yu R, Zhou B, (Eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. See page SPM.8, Figure SPM.2 a).
IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, M. Journal of Basic & Applied Sciences, 2021, Volume 17 53 Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, New York, NY, USA, 1535. See B.1.4, page SPM.19.
Reference [6], Figure 4, page 1443
Reference [14] See Figure SPM.5 on page 14.
Sputnik International, “Russian academic says CO2 not to blame for global warming”, January 15, 2007. Available at: https://sputniknews.com/20070115/59078992.html
Abdussamatov HI. Chapter 17- The New Little Ice Age Has Started, Evidence-Based Climate Science (Second Edition), Elsevier 2016; 307-328. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-804588-6.00017-3
Abdussamatov H. Bicentennial decrease of the Total Solar Irradiance Leads to Unbalanced Thermal Budget of the Earth and the Little Ice Age. Applied Physics Research 2012; 4(1). https://doi.org/10.5539/apr.v4n1p178
Zharkova VV, Shepherd SJ, Popova E, Zharkov SI. Heartbeat of the Sun from Principal Component Analysis and prediction of solar activity on a millennium timescale. Scientific Reports 2015; 5: 15689. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep15689
Zharkova VV. Millennial Oscillations of Solar Irradiance and Magnetic Field in 600–2600, Published: March 23rd 2021. https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.96450
Shepherd SJ, Zharkov SI, Zharkova WV. Prediction of solar activity from solar background magnetic field variations in cycles 21-23, The American Astronomical Society 2014; 795(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/0004-637X/795/1/46
Bhowmik P, Nandy D. Prediction of the strength and timing of sunspot cycle 25 reveal decadal-scale space environmental conditions. Nat Commun 2018; 9: 5209. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07690-0
Archibald D. A Dalton Minimum repeat is shaping up. Original 2010, current update Dec 2020. Available at: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/20/a-dalton-minimum-repeat-is-shaping-up
Sunspot Index and Long Term Solar Observations (SILSO), World Data Center for the production, preservation, and dissemination of the international sunspot number. Available at: https://wwwbis.sidc.be/silso/dayssnplot
Reference [14] Observations of Water Cycle Change, page 42
Abdussamatov H. July 8, 2014 – “The beginning of the new Little Ice Age”. Presentation to the Heartland Institute, Las Vegas, July 18, 2014. Available at: https://www.heartland.org/multimedia/videos/habibullo-abdussamatov--iccc9-july-8-2014
Velasco Herrera VM. Soon, Willie, Legates DR. Does Machine Learning reconstruct missing sunspots and forecast a new solar minimum? Advances in Space Research 2021; 68(3): 1485-1501. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2021.03.023
Inter Academy Council, Climate change assessments, Review of the processes and procedures of the IPCC, October 2010. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/03/IAC-Report.pdf. See the recommendation re Governance and Management on page 45.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.